Every year, thousands of first-timers decide "I'm running Chicago," enter the lottery, and stop planning. The lottery accepts roughly 25% of applicants; New York accepts about 4%. Framed honestly: a Chicago-only plan is a 75% chance of training for a race you can't enter, and a New-York-only plan is nearly a coin flip against you — repeated 25 times.
The fix isn't to skip the lottery. Enter it — the majors are worth experiencing. The fix is to anchor your season on a race that cannot reject you, and treat the lottery as upside.
For a fall marathon, the anchor is the CNO Financial Indianapolis Monumental: November 7, 2026, 27 days after Chicago, open entry, 14 ft/mi of climb, a 20,000-runner field with official pacers, and a first-timer score of 9.4/10 — one of the best debut courses in the country in its own right, not a consolation prize.
The training math is the point: an 18-week block aimed at Chicago retargets Indianapolis with zero waste — the extra 27 days is a second taper, not a second buildup. Win the lottery? Race Chicago and jog Indy, or skip it. Lose? Your season changes by 27 days and nothing else.
The hedge costs the Indy entry fee (~$140). Weigh that against the alternative: 18 weeks of training with a 75% chance of no start line at the end of it. Cheapest insurance in the sport.