Could you finish a marathon?
Two numbers get you an honest answer: a finish probability, your earliest safe race date, and the races that fit your window.
How the verdict works
Your weekly volume and longest recent run set your endurance readiness — the same gate our coaching engine uses. If your base supports an 18-week plan today, your earliest safe race is 18 weeks out; if not, we add base-building weeks at a safe ~10% weekly ramp. The probability reflects readiness and the added risk of every ramp week. It's a rough estimate by design — see the methodology for what's under the hood.