Mesa Marathon
Mesa, AZ · Sat, February 13, 2027 · 06:30 start
Prime BQ course.
Forgiving to run · some friction to enter and reach.
How it runs
731 ft net downhill, and almost all of it lands in the first half — nearly 1,000 ft of descent inside 13 miles. The second half is close to perfectly flat, which is where the race is decided: there is no more free speed after halfway.
- downhill running at goal pace to condition the quads
- flat second-half running on legs that have already descended
- one 0.7mi climb at 2.8% around mile 5
Cooler than 54% of the 39 races we track.
Drier than 90% of the 39 races we track. Dew point, not humidity — it's what actually caps how fast you can shed heat.
Flatter than 51% of the 39 races we track.
Climate: 30-year normal · NOAA 1991–2020 climate normals, sampled at the start line and start hour. The morning band is climatology plus uniform typical post-dawn warming, not a measured hourly series. Elevation from the race's published course data.
Can you qualify here
M 18-34 · 4:00:00Boston Marathon (BQ)
+47:54- Standard
- 3:00:00
- Your projection
- 3:47:54
- Chance
- 0%
- Realistic cutoff
- 2:54:34−5:26
- Gap to cutoff
- +53:20
- Chance vs cutoff
- 0%
NYC Marathon Time Qualifier (marathon)
+54:54- Standard
- 2:53:00
- Your projection
- 3:47:54
- Chance
- 0%
Training plans for this race
Build the habit, cross the line healthy
Race-ready training, target 4:00–4:30
Chase a Boston-relevant time, peak volume
What the Mesa Marathon really costs
A first marathon costs more than the entry fee — budget the whole weekend before you commit.
- Entry fee
- Entry fee · Medium confidenceThe organiser's registration pageThe price listed when this race was catalogued.Checked Jul 17, 2026Where this can be wrong: Most races raise the fee in tiers as race day approaches, so this is a floor rather than what you'll pay later.
- Travel + 3 hotel nights (est.)
- ~$805from South Florida
Cheaper than only 38% of the 39 races we price. Entry plus travel and 3 hotel nights, estimated from South Florida.
The original five-axis composite. It's kept for continuity and for the methodology page, but it mixes how hard a race is to run with how hard it is to enter — which is why the four dimensions above lead instead.
8.2/ 10 composite
Distance and cost of getting there from home.
Field size and pacing support on course.
Climb and net gradient — how hard the ground is.
Typical race-morning heat and dew point.
How hard it is to get an entry.
Net downhill ~770ft, under the 1,500ft BAA threshold. High BQ rate.